The Lucky 13?

The Raptor Core is back after an extended hiatus!! It’s been almost four weeks since my last entry but it was mostly by design more than being busy this summer. Most of you that read my blog regularly know the entries are usually pretty lengthy and that’s just my style. There wasn’t a lot to talk about on a daily basis over the past month so I opted not to make small entries here and there about signings like Will Solomon, etc. – no disrespect to him, though. There’s a lot to cover so you might see a couple entries this week or I might just put everything in here as my super-comeback entry.

The Lucky 13?

First of all, now that the 13-man Raptor roster is set, it’s time to analyze where I see each player fitting. Much has been made about the fact there isn’t such a logjam on the wings anymore. It always seems like there’s some way to spin whatever’s going on. If the roster is small, there’s less confusion in the rotation and everyone has a defined role. If the roster is full, the team is deep and able to handle injuries and slumps. On this particular team, I think the first mentality is the correct one. Last season, we saw that ‘depth’ doesn’t necessarily lead to success when the guys on the bench are Joey Graham and Carlos Delfino (although Delfino is light years ahead of Joey) and you don’t know what you’re getting from them on a night-to-night basis – or if they’ll even play at all due to inconsistency. This year, everyone on the team knows where they can expect to be, what their ceiling is and how things should work as far as the rotation goes. On the court? That’s a different story.

The Starting Line-up

PG – Jose Calderon

In my opinion, Jose Calderon is the second best point guard in the Eastern Conference behind Chauncey Billups. He’s a better creator than Chauncey but he can’t take over a game or impose his will on another player physically. He’s also nowhere near the defensive player Billups is. Anyway, I think this will be an All-Star season for Jose. He could average something like 13 points and 10 assists and get in easily on the bench as a reserve. If he had started from the beginning of last season (assuming T.J. never existed), he would’ve probably made the team as that 12^th man. He runs the pick-and-roll game very well with the bigs and he’s one of the best long-range shooters in the NBA now. This is the year where things will be hardest on Jose and he’ll have to rise above it.

SG – Anthony Parker

AP still remains in Toronto and I like his presence in the starting line-up. I, like so many other fans, am still waiting for him to break out and start doing some of the things we know he’s capable of – such as being more aggressive and driving to the basket. How much pressure would that put on opposing defenses to have to worry about what AP’s doing? Not only that, but he’s such a great outside shooter; he could have his best NBA season thus far. I’ve seen footage of his Maccabi Tel Aviv days recently and he was playing with a lot more confidence back there. I think he’s too tentative and he needs to realize he belongs in the NBA and he can bring a lot more to the team than he’s doing right now. His defense is already pretty good on the perimeter but if he ratchets that up another level, he’ll be perfect.

SF – Jason Kapono

This isn’t set in stone since no one’s said anything about it from the organization but the Jermaine O’Neal move makes this almost a MUST. Kapono is the best three-point shooter in the NBA right now and he can have a lot of opportunities with Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Bosh down low commanding double-teams. If teams choose to stay on him because their logic is “stopping three points is better than stopping two points”, then we know CB4 flourishes against most defenders in the league. The same goes for J.O. when he gets physical. With Jose, AP and JK out on the perimeter, what can defenses do to stop the Raptors’ offence? They’ll get killed with the three or killed inside with the new Twin Towers.

PF – Chris Bosh

Chris Bosh has been an All-Star, he’s started in the game, he’s an Olympian right now and may even earn himself a gold medal in Beijing – so what’s the next step? Well, it’s something Sam Mitchell has been talking about since the season ended: it’s time for CB4 to take his game to an MVP-caliber level. Will his scoring increase this season with J.O. here? Probably not. Will his rebounding increase? Maybe. Will he be a better defensive player? Yes. I think Bosh is already showing signs in China that should make Raptor fans very excited for 2008-2009. His activity and energy is very impressive and while he’s still not aggressive inside with blocking shots, that will come once he sees J.O. and Moon doing it more because it IS contagious to get nasty and want to deny everything. If the team ends up having good chemistry, there’s no telling what Bosh will be able to do this year. He seems to be in the phase where he’s about to do something special so I can’t wait for October.

C – Jermaine O’Neal

I’ve said this a thousand times since the trade happened: getting J.O. changes the team in so many ways, it won’t be clear to some people until the season starts. The offence opens up for the shooters and Bosh himself, the rebounding improves because he’s always been good at it, the defense improves because that’s what J.O. enjoys the most, the perimeter D doesn’t have to worry about getting exposed as often with he and Bosh anchoring the team behind them. He also brings a swagger that you could just sense even from his introductory news conference last month when this whole thing was made official. He has his sights set high for this team and at first, I couldn’t understand what he was seeing to think they were Championship contenders. I don’t think I agree with him now but I definitely have a good feeling on what his presence will do in the locker room. He’s been through a lot in his 13 NBA seasons, he’s gone to the East Finals, he’s sniffed getting close to the NBA Finals, he’s played big games, done big things down the stretch of games on both sides of the ball. I can’t wait to see what he brings to the table when they finally hit the court. Finally some nastiness has been injected into the Raptors. I don’t remember having that since the days of Antonio Davis and Kevin Willis.

The Bench PG – Roko Ukic

Finally, the kid’s everyone been talking about for the last three years will come to Toronto. Ever since Rob Babcock chose Ukic in the second round of the 2005 draft, people talk about him on call-in shows and message boards as if he’ll be the next Jose Calderon. Will he? Only time will tell. What I do know is I’ve seen him play (a very short stint, mind you) for his European teams and then against the Raptors and I like his size and skill set. He still seems raw and I expect there’ll be times where fans will want to pull their hair out with things he does but he could be the right type of back-up for this team.

SG – Hassan Adams

I really don’t know what to expect from Adams. He’s got decent size to play the position but he won’t be able to guard some of the bigger guys. I know he’s very athletic and has deceptive explosiveness with his hops and drive but how often will he get to show those things in this half court offence? He’ll have to prove himself in training camp because he could be in direct competition with Will Solomon at this spot as well. I’m sure it’ll come down to ‘situational’ substitutions at times, though.

SF – Jamario Moon

Moon is one of the most athletic players on the team but now it’s time to start polishing his ball game. He’s in his physical prime and needs to be working on refining his drive moves, finishes around the basket and mid-range jump shot. I really don’t see a need for Moon to be taking many threes on this team with three of the top ten guys in the league in his starting line-up already. If the opportunity presents itself and he’s wide open, then it makes sense. Otherwise, there’s no reason to be shooting it anymore – Andrea Bargnani is there to do it too. Fans were BEGGING for Apollo 33 to drive and take flight more last season and if he can do that, he’ll be such an asset off the bench. Aggressiveness is a key in the NBA and he has the same type of mentality as Parker. They both need to get past that because they’re so much better than they’ve shown.

PF – Kris Humphries

I’m hoping Hump gets minutes at this spot behind CB4 and/or J.O. It’s really interchangeable with the center spot because Hump can hold his own against certain bigs. He’s very strong for his size and I don’t think people realize that. Assuming he doesn’t want to show off his offensive arsenal, Hump could really blossom with extended minutes as a reserve – or at least more than he’s been used to throughout his career. It could be a key to his development and he was re-signed to an extension during last training camp if I’m not mistaken so the team definitely thinks he can help them. He’ll scrap down low and play so hard that he can’t breathe by the time he gets subbed out of the game. It’s been pointed out on the broadcasts on more than one occasion. He deserves this opportunity and I’m sure he’ll make the most of it.

C – Andrea Bargnani

This is the make or break season for Il Mago. Either he builds on his rookie year or risks being a forgotten man in the NBA. He’s a 7-footer with deceptive strength, amazing range, scary court vision, great passing and good positional defense down low, which he doesn’t seem to get enough credit for. If he can improve his help defense and rebounding, as well as develop some post moves to go to once in a while, the Raps will be happy to keep him. It’s his third season and there are no more excuses. He’s coming off the bench with no pressure other than what he should feel as a professional looking for a long-term extension. I’m leaning toward believing he’ll bounce back and average over 10 points this season, with some timely shots. If he’s really working hard this summer like he was supposed to, I see no reason why he can’t take this team over the top. J.O. talked about it at his press conference: if Bargnani gets his game together, he makes this a VERY scary team.

G – Will Solomon

I have to be completely honest here: I know next to nothing about Solomon. I don’t know anything about his Vancouver Grizzlies days, his days playing with AP on Maccabi Tel Aviv or what type of style he has. I’m hoping he can make some sort of an impact but when you’re signed at the end of July as the 13^th man to fill out the roster, there’s not much of a chance you’ll rock the boat. We can all hope, though.

F – Joey Graham

Joey Graham’s NBA career will probably continue whether or not he does well with the Raptors this season but I’m not holding my breath. Joey is chiseled out of rock, he’s got a wealth of athleticism and leaping ability but for some reason or another, he can’t put it all together and figure out what his role is on a basketball team. His mid-range jumper is pretty reliable but he commits too many fouls and doesn’t seem to possess the basketball IQ necessary to be an impact player. B.C. and the rest of the organization seem willing to wait as long as they can to see if Joey will tap into his potential and bring everything together to help the team but how long can you wait? The guy was in the college ranks for five years due to a transfer, he’s been in the NBA for three years and only shown slight glimpses of being useful. This is it. No more talking in training camp. He can either be exactly the type of player the Raptors need to be a title contender, or he’ll join the rest of scrubs in the free agent pile at season’s end.

C – Nathan Jawai

Again, I’m not too familiar with his game other than what I’ve seen on Youtube and read on the Internet. I’m thinking Jawai might have a stint in the D-League but it’s probably unlikely since this roster is so thin to begin with and he could be needed on any given night where the bigs get into foul trouble. He seems very big, long and freakishly athletic for his size. I can’t wait to see video from training camp and the preseason to find out what he’s capable of. He’s definitely a project for the future of this team’s bench so I don’t think much is expected of him right away.

Coaching

Sam Mitchell finally has what seems to be a scrappy, half court-oriented team capable of playing defense to work with. During J.O.’s press conference, he made it clear that the ball would work from the inside out and Bosh and O’Neal would work to set everything up unless there was a fast break where the Raps’ guards beat the other team down the court. The offence is already very efficient with Jose running it and I think it’ll be just as good with J.O. there and the threat of sharpshooters on the outside. The defensive principles should be the same as Sam has always coached – except for the fact that he has a line-up better suited to executing it now. I expect to see more out of Bosh on that end and the same goes for Jamario Moon, who was a spark plug last season. Substitution patterns have always been an issue when people talk about Sam so I’m hoping having a tighter rotation will solve those problems. He seems excited about this team and he should be. B.C. has given him a bunch of guys that fit his personality so now it’s time to go out and win games.

The Schedule

The NBA schedule was released on August 6 and the Raptors have finally gotten a bone thrown their way. There is only one extended West Coast road trip, which takes place around Christmas in December. Of the six games on that trip, four of them are very winnable so I don’t expect to see any more 1-win road trips this season. They have a lot of games on the road in the first three months of the season but that means when the chips are down, they have a slightly easier road. Here are some highlights of the schedule, in my opinion:

Oct. 29 @ PHI: Season opener against Elton Brand and the revamped 76ers

Oct. 31 vs. GSW: Home opener on Halloween against the Warriors

Nov. 10 @ BOS: The first ‘measuring stick’ game against the NBA Champions

Nov. 18 @ ORL: Time to relive the 2008 Playoffs against D12 and the Magic

Nov. 21 vs. NJ: Vince Carter comes to town for the Nets’ beating

Nov. 23 vs. BOS: The NBA Champions come to town

Dec. 10 vs. IND: T.J. Ford and Rasho Nesterovic return to Toronto

Jan. 2 vs. HOU: The Raps get their first look at the new-look Rockets with Ron Artest

Jan. 11-12 vs. BOS: Home-and-home series to conclude the season series

Jan. 16 @ IND: Jermaine O’Neal returns to Indiana for the first time

Jan. 18 vs. PHX: Steve Nash makes his only visit to Canada

Feb. 4 vs. LAL: Kobe Bryant makes his only visit to Canada

Feb. 18 vs. CLE: LeBron James makes his only visit to Canada

Apr. 15 @ CHI: Closing out the season against the Bulls for the second straight season

Some interesting facts:

1. Longest road trip: Dec. 19-29 (6 games) with a break for Christmas

2. Longest homestand: Mar. 20-29 (5 games)

3. Season series with Boston ends in January once again

4. October/November: 8 Home, 8 Road

5. December: 6 Home, 10 Road

6. January: 8 Home, 8 Road

7. February: 6 Home, 6 Road

8. March: 9 Home, 4 Road

9. April: 4 Home, 5 Road

10. There are 17 sets of back-to-backs (down from 21 last year)

As I look at the schedule, it’s hard to say just how many wins the Raptors will have this coming season. Injuries can come up, chemistry could be an issue, and we haven’t even seen the team play one game together yet. However, I’m going to make a prediction right now that it would surprise me if the Raptors did not to win 50 games this coming season if things fall into place. My preliminary prediction until the preseason is over is 52-30. I think that would be good for at least 3^rd place in the East. We’ll see what happens.

Raptors Broadcasts

I know this happened a little while ago but I’m still talking about it: congratulations to Jack Armstrong. Eric Smith put it perfectly on the Fan 590 earlier this week: a few months ago, we were all wondering if Jack would even be involved with the Raptors anymore. Not only is his staying in Toronto and calling most of the games for TSN, but he’s also getting a show to co-host on the Fan to replace Chuck Swirsky. It’s called The Game Plan and I think it starts in a few weeks while Eric Smith holds things down with The Bridge. The time slot is 2-4 if I’m not mistaken so it should be fun. He’ll be covering a little more than half of the Raptor games for TSN while Leo Rautins will handle The Score and CBC. There are no Raptors TV-exclusive games this season, whereas there were 12 last year. I always learn something from Jack and he’s very entertaining so I’m glad he’s back with the team. He’ll also remain as a guest for Hoops on Thursday nights at 7 PM, as well as a Raps TV analyst for pre- and post-game shows when Leo is doing the commentary.

Thoughts On The Olympics

Just some quick tidbits here: I’ve seen every pre-Olympic exhibition game the United States has played and it seems with each one that passes, a new problem presents itself as far as how teams choose to play them. Russia chose to get back on defense rather than make any attempt to get offensive rebounds. Australia packed their defenders into the paint to stop drives and the U.S. played right into their hands with trying the whole one-on-one thing that got them in trouble back in 2004. Do I think they’re “in trouble”? Not necessarily, but they do have to tighten the screws and work the ball around more. When they get into the open court and run, it’s very hard to stop the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant. When things slow down, more experienced and cohesive teams that have been together longer present a challenge defensively. The August 16 game against Spain will be very telling on how ready they are to try and justify their nickname as The Redeem Team.

One thing I have to say is Jerry Colangelo built a slightly flawed team. It was clear Tayshaun Prince wouldn’t get any playing time so why wasn’t another big man added to the squad? Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer are the only ones and the latter two don’t always play like ‘traditional’ bigs. Dwight also has some deficiencies when it comes to international play so it’s very worrisome that the five spot might be a weakness for Team USA. I know they need versatility out of that position, which is why I suspect Chris Bosh is moving up the ranks in Coach K’s books but it’d still be nice to have a guy like David West or Tyson Chandler there. This game may be different from the NBA’s style but having three bigs out of 12 guys is ludicrous. Hell, even Chris Kaman might’ve been a nice 12^th man to have instead of going over to Germany (which I think was totally ridiculous of him to do under the premise that his grandparents were from there).

Bosh was decent against Canada; his defense against Turkey was missing but the scoring was there and in efficient fashion; he was almost invisible against Lithuania; the defense was pretty good against Russia and he was singled out for praise by Coach K; and his best all-around game so far was the last one against Australia. He had 9 points on 3-for-3 shooting with 4 rebounds in just 11 minutes. Dwight Howard, on the other hand, had 8 points on 4-for-4 shooting with 5 rebounds in 22 minutes. That also included an 0-for-6 game from the free throw line, which isn’t an aberration for him – he can’t shoot free throws. In a tournament this big, he has to be hitting them and Bosh is pretty automatic from the charity stripe. Bosh has been very active on defense and Coach K even told him that he feels he can gamble when CB4 is on the floor due to him coming out and challenging guards and being generally big (it’s from the Road to Redemption special). D12 is hesitant and reluctant to come outside and do the same things with quite the same confidence. What Bosh lacks inside with aggressiveness and ‘big man’ skills, he makes up for with speed and activity. He’s also very efficient because he’s working so hard so I hope we see him get more minutes against China on Sunday when Team USA opens this thing up. If Bosh has a run with the national team similar to what Jose had with Spain in the 2006 World Championships, it can only mean good thing for the Raptors when training camp convenes in October.

Anyway, that’s it for this entry. I don’t know when you’ll hear from me again because news will be few and far between from now until late September/early October. I might do sporadic wrap-ups on Team USA’s games the day they happen but that’s not a guarantee. I know this has been long but hopefully it was worth it after being away for so long. Until next time..

-Mark R.

[The Raptor Core]