2008 Free Agent Report – Part II: Destination Estimation

You’ll have to forgive me for the lame title but it does explain what this entry is about fairly well. The 2008 Free Agent Report I released on Saturday night (the entry directly before this) has been one of my most viewed and successful entries since I started this blog almost two months ago. I have to thank the people at Facebook’s Raptors Fan Club, RealGM’s Raptors board and those of you that passed the link on for helping to make it so widespread compared to what I thought it’d be.

I got this request a couple days ago: make an entry that hypothesizes on where the major free agents will end up. I think that’s a pretty good idea, especially since we’ve gotten news that big names like Baron Davis and Elton Brand are now unrestricted free agents at the eleventh hour. Neither of those players was expected to opt out of the final year of their deal so it’s exciting from a fan perspective, even if the Raptors don’t have enough money to pursue any of them.

However, I figured I should spend the first bit of this entry on the home team because even though there are many spots to fill and only roughly $5-6 million to fill them with, those spots are still important to the club. Using my initial report as a point of reference, which you can find at http://raptorcore.wordpress.com/2008/06/28/2008-free-agent-report/ , I will go through some potential candidates to fill out the roster here in Toronto.

Toronto Raptors: Looking for a Diamond in the Rough

The Raptors’ needs are clear: they need to get a back-up point guard for Jose Calderon as well as improved play on the wing. With these needs in mind, I have the following names to toss into the hat:

Earl Boykins (Bobcats):

It really looks like Earl’s stock has fallen around the league. I think the Raptors could get solid bench play from him but the downside is he is a very small player and it’s not like Jose is a big guard. It’d probably be best to look for a bit more size at the position. Boykins is still a veteran, though, and can keep the flow going when Jose takes a rest.

Chris Duhon (Bulls):

Duhon’s stock has definitely fallen. Rob Babcock signed him to an offer sheet a few years ago, which Chicago matched. Times have definitely changed in the Windy City, though. Duhon has fallen out of favour with the team due to his attitude, they have a surplus of guards, a few of them need to be moved and he could be had at a cheap price considering that fallen stock. Could it be any lower than the $3 million he made this past season? Maybe not, but he’s worth a look to back up Jose.

Devin Brown (Cavaliers):

Devin Brown has really bounced around the league over the years but he’s never been a scrub after his stint in San Antonio. Statistically, he had a good year with the Hornets in 2006-2007. I think he’s a pretty solid defender and made barely over $1 million this past year. He’s not the scorer the Raptors need, which is the downside but at least he can provide defense. This isn’t anywhere near the top of my list but he’s still on it.

Antoine Wright (Mavericks):

I realize this is more of a project and less immediate help but Antoine Wright has shown small signs in the past of being a good basketball player. For whatever reason, he’s pulled a Joey Graham and not been able to put it together but before he was dealt to Dallas this past season, he put up some nice stats with the Nets. That may be due to injuries they had down there and the fact they weren’t playing meaningful games but if he could be had for dirt cheap, why not take a look at him?

J.R. Smith (Nuggets):

I’m definitely not holding my breath for this one. It’s not even likely on either end because he’d command more on the free agent market than the Raptors can afford and B.C. probably wouldn’t like his ‘chucker’ mentality much either, especially coupled with the fact his defense is non-existent. Still, if the price was right, J.R. has given Denver a lot of offense in his years there and he’s a sparkplug. He’s also extremely athletic so these are things to think about – not that it’s likely, though.

Jarvis Hayes (Pistons):

I like Hayes’ game. He’s not the best defender but he stays active. Maybe it’s just Detroit’s system instilling that in him but it may be an individual thing as well. He’s also seen decreases in his minutes every year since his sophomore season, which explains the gradual drop in his stats. He shoots good percentages, though, and when he is in the game, he contributes. I like him at the small forward spot and he made $1.2 million this past year so he should be in the Raps’ price range after factoring in a raise.

Lindsey Hunter (Pistons):

This is unlikely for price reasons and also age concerns but Hunter brings good ball pressure in the backcourt, which we saw throughout the playoffs and in his career overall. He can hit shots when necessary but at least he’d help the Raps with their guard play on the defensive end off the bench.

Kelenna Azubuike & Mickael Pietrus (Warriors):

I pretty much lump these guys in together because they’re so similar. Both can be termed ‘chuckers’ but that’s probably a product of the Warriors’ system in Oakland. They encourage shooting the ball and doing so in the flow of the game so a bad shot here wouldn’t be considered a bad shot to them. Both guys are fairly athletic but I think Pietrus has the advantage there. He also has length and uses it to gamble on defense, which can be a good thing and a bad thing, depending on the play. Neither of these guys are particularly good ball handlers but I like Pietrus and I think he’s one of the more realistic names B.C. will contact.

Ronald Murray (Pacers):

I have always been a Flip Murray fan and I think I always will be. I like his game in the backcourt as a poor man’s Ben Gordon. I think he’s capable of putting points on the board in bunches when he gets an opportunity to do so and it’s always nice to have an aggressive guard off your bench to contrast the style of the starter. That’s what made the Raptors so great in the past with Jose and T.J. and it’s not like Murray can be considered a selfish guy. He passes as well and I think had a good season once he got to Indiana last year.

Quinton Ross (Clippers):

I like Ross because he really is a ‘swingman’. He can play the shooting guard position and the small forward spot. I like his defense at both positions, as well as his size. At 6’6, he can play a lot of different players. I’m not really impressed with his shot, which takes away from him playing the 2 but with some different opportunities, he might shine.

Ramon Sessions (Bucks):

This is a little ridiculous. I’m including a guy on this list that played a total of 17 games last season. He started seven of those due to injury to the Milwaukee backcourt and had that amazing game back in April where he had 24 assists against the Bulls. That’s not something I’m going to forget any time soon. He averaged over 7 assists when he played, as well as 8 points and 3 rebounds, shooting decent percentages from all over the floor in only 26 minutes. He’s only 22 years old and could be a really good player down the road so if the Raps could get him for a minimum deal or even $1-2 million, they could have a diamond in the rough. If it doesn’t work out, there’s very little lost.

Keyon Dooling (Magic):

I like Dooling’s game a lot. I think he’ll get more money than the Raps can afford but he can play the point guard spot if necessary and he guards both backcourt positions fairly well. He has good size, deceptive quickness and explosiveness. He’s also good with ball pressure at all points on the court, which we saw glimpses of during the playoffs against Toronto. His offensive game is sufficient but he definitely doesn’t have 20-point potential, which is acceptable because of the budget the Raps are working on. He’d still be a good addition at the right price but I don’t think that opportunity will arise.

Louis Williams (76ers):

This is another player who will almost certainly be out of the Raptors’ range. Philly tendered him a qualifying offer, which I doubt he’ll take considering how he helped his stock rise this season. He was an integral part of Philly’s late season run and then his numbers got even better in the playoffs against the Pistons, which is no easy task. If the Warriors lose Monta Ellis to free agency, Louis Williams would be a good fit for them. I wish he’d come to T.O., though. The only downside is he’s 6’2 and that’d make for a very small shooting guard, no matter the line-up at the time.

There’s my short list. Of the guys on here, I think Bryan Colangelo will be making a push to find out about the following: Mickael Pietrus, Kelenna Azubuike and Quinton Ross. We’ll probably have a very good idea of who he’s targeted within the next few hours.

The Headliners

A lot of ‘big names’ have reached free agency this year as well. Most of them aren’t the top tier talents like Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett, but they are bona fide ‘number two’ guys like Corey Maggette. Also, Ron Artest decided at the last minute not to opt out of the final year of his deal so he won’t be a free agent until next summer barring an extension with the Sacramento Kings between now and then.

Josh Smith

Current Team: Atlanta Hawks

Signs With: Atlanta Hawks

I really don’t see the Hawks letting Smith go. He’s arguably the most important piece to their puzzle. Guys like Joe Johnson are very important when it comes to shouldering the offensive load but Smith is very athletic and useful inside. His offense gets better every season to match his amazing defensive abilities and if they’re ever on the same level, he will be a scary two-way player. They would be foolish to let him leave for any amount of money.

James Posey

Current Team: Boston Celtics

Signs With: Boston Celtics

I’m not saying Posey is an All-Star in this league but he’s definitely important to a contender’s success off the bench. This is probably one of those deals where the player opts out to test the waters but ultimately re-signs with the same team at a greater salary. It makes sense for Posey because his stock has risen yet again and while the Celtics may not enjoy doing it, it makes a lot of sense for them to keep him. He’s the perfect utility role player.

Emeka Okafor

Current Team: Charlotte Bobcats

Signs With: Charlotte Bobcats

Okafor hasn’t been an amazing pro. He’s shown defensive skills inside but all in all, the Orlando Magic made the right choice when they went with Dwight Howard at #1 back in 2004. Okafor hasn’t shown a lot of offensive power like I thought he would when I saw him play in college. He’s definitely not going to get anywhere near a max deal but what happens to the ‘Cats if they let him go? Sean May? Right.

Luol Deng

Current Team: Chicago Bulls

Signs With: Chicago Bulls

Deng is very important in Chicago right now. With all the guards they have, they can probably swing a nice deal for a useful player but he’s a forward that should really stay. Who else is there after him? Tyrus Thomas? It makes sense for Deng to sign an extension with the Bulls because things are looking up for them after drafting Derrick Rose. They have tons of assets to make the deals that will put them in a position to win. His skills are valued in a variety of places but who has the money to pay him what he deserves?

Ben Gordon

Current Team: Chicago Bulls

Signs With: Philadelphia 76ers

I don’t know what it is but for some reason, I think Gordon will end up in Philly if Louis Williams leaves. They have a lot of cap room right now to sign someone and while I think that’d probably be a big man, Gordon wouldn’t be too bad either as a complementary player to Andre Iguodala. On second thought, it might be a bit of a style clash but I can’t think of a good fit for him anywhere else but Golden State.

Monta Ellis

Current Team: Golden State Warriors

Signs With: Memphis Grizzlies

Marc Iavaroni apparently loves Ellis and what’s not to love? The sky is the limit for him in the right system and Memphis will definitely be implementing one that favours his skill set. He’s quick, athletic, and explosive, as well as possessing the ability to fly. He’d be a great addition to what the Grizzlies are building with Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. That will be a high-powered offense for years to come if they can get a versatile big man down there. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Warriors match the offer even to a max deal since Baron opted out. They have to protect their assets.

Baron Davis

Current Team: Golden State Warriors

Signs With: Golden State Warriors

I just can’t see Baron leaving California. With that said, would he play for the Kings? They don’t have the money and probably don’t need him right now. What about the Clippers? Well, they might have the money depending on what happens with Maggette and Brand but would he want to sign with them if their next best player is Chris Kaman? Probably not. Let’s not even get into the possibility of him playing with the Lakers because that’s just not happening barring something unforeseen. I’m pretty sure it’d require a sign-and-trade involving Lamar Odom. I was shocked Baron even opted out to begin with.

Elton Brand

Current Team: Los Angeles Clippers

Signs With: Los Angeles Clippers

I really want to say he’ll end up in Philadelphia or Miami but the Heat don’t have money to offer him. They have the expiring contract of Shawn Marion worth $17 million, which would allow Michael Beasley to get into the line-up right away but I’m not sure. Pat Riley clearly likes Brand from the reports I’ve read around the league so he may try all he can to put a package together. Philly has the room and he’d be a great fit there, although his style differs from how the Sixers are playing right now. I’m sure they’d alter that for him or maybe he could alter it for them. Either way, I don’t think anything will get done. I’m fairly surprised he opted out coming off an injury year. There must be something out there that got back to him and prompted him to test the waters. Charlotte might be interested as well but would have to backload the contract since they may not have all the room necessary next year.

Corey Maggette

Current Team: Los Angeles Clippers

Signs With: Los Angeles Clippers

I have to admit that this one is a cop out on my part. I really have no clue where Maggette will end up. If Brand stays in L.A., it probably makes sense for Maggette to do so as well because there isn’t a lot of money out there. The teams that do have cash don’t really need his services. Maybe a team like the Warriors would make sense if Monta Ellis walked? How about the Bobcats? Hell, even Brand could be an option for the ‘Cats if they wanted to team him up with Jason Richardson, D.J. Augustin and Gerald Wallace. That’d actually be a very potent mix in Charlotte if they had the cash to make it happen.

Andre Iguodala

Current Team: Philadelphia 76ers

Signs With: Philadelphia 76ers

I know he turned down the extension early in the season but Iggy has to be happy with the progress the team made in the last few months of the season after the All-Star break. They were arguably the hottest team in the East other than the powerhouses like Boston and Detroit. They were doing it on a fairly cheap, young roster as well and if they keep the nucleus together, they could build toward something great. It starts with Iguodala, though, and I think he’ll realize that soon enough.

Gilbert Arenas

Current Team: Washington Wizards

Signs With: Washington Wizards

Agent Zero really shouldn’t get the maximum deal of six years, $124 million. It just doesn’t make sense for him to be paid like that based on a stellar 2006-2007 season and then injuries after that. I don’t see the dollars he’s looking for anywhere else so he should take what Washington offers and stay there with Caron Butler and the newly re-signed Antawn Jamison (who got a four year, $50 million deal Monday). If Iggy doesn’t stay in Philly, then that’s an automatic location for Gilbert to land if they want him but otherwise, no one else makes as much sense.

Guys like Shawn Marion and Ron Artest actually decided not to opt out, so we got a little swerve from them. Baron Davis and Elton Brand didn’t come up too often in the past week or so but then news broke on Monday night that both of them exercised their opt-outs to become free agents while others will stay put. It’s amazing. It may seem lame to state that most of these guys will return to their original team but that’s how free agency plays out very often. This year, there isn’t a lot of money to be spent on the market and the teams that have the money are nowhere near title contention. Also, it’s few and far between that major stars leave their respective teams. We’ve seen it with Shaquille O’Neal leaving Orlando for Los Angeles, Grant Hill leaving Detroit for Orlando and even Steve Nash – to a lesser extent – leaving Dallas for Phoenix, but it doesn’t happen as often as it seems. Free agency only yields a few major address changes each year and I don’t think this will be one that bucks the trend.

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this ‘supplementary’ report for the 2008 Free Agent season. It’s going up the morning of July 1 so a lot of it will be relevant for about five minutes before news leaks start spreading across the net. Enjoy it while you can and I’ll be back sooner rather than later to share my thoughts on the signings being reported. Of course, nothing’s official until July 9 but we’ll still have a good idea of what’s going on. Until next time..

-Mark R.

[The Raptor Core]

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