TRC is back once again for the latest installment of my playoffs analysis. Game 3 of the NBA Finals was played last night at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. This was a very ‘East Coast’ game because of the slow tempo and emphasis on defence. In the end, the Lakers managed to hang on and win the game 87-81 in front of their home crowd but I don’t think they gained as much confidence as they could have, considering their team performance. Let’s head into the review..
Game 3: The Lakers Show Up To Play.. Well, 2 of Them..
The first thing I HAVE to do right now is link you guys to an article written for ESPN’s web site by columnist Bill Simmons: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080611 . I’m sure some of you are familiar with him and he’s from the Boston area so his stories are usually written from that perspective. However, I wouldn’t say he’s ‘biased’, as you’ll find by his questioning of Kevin Garnett’s performance in clutch moments, among other things. It’s a must-read for anyone still interested in NBA ball with the Raptors not playing right now. It was simply exceptional, in my opinion.
1. I’m leading off with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Neither of these guys had a field goal in the first half of Game 3. Both of them started Game 2 with energy and persistence inside – at least for the first half – but then it just disappeared. On Tuesday night, it’s fair to say both were atrocious and if not for Gasol’s 12 rebounds, the night could be considered a total write-off for the L.A. bigs. Whether it’s the intimidating physical presence of Kevin Garnett, the toughness of P.J. Brown and Kendrick Perkins or just the inability to produce on the grand stage, the Lakers frontcourt has been rendered virtually useless thus far. It’s sad to watch such talented players struggle like this for no apparent reason.
2. Doc Rivers continues to make bad decisions in important situations. One of them is allowing Rajon Rondo to be cross-matched against Kobe Bryant. It is the Lakers’ plan to have Bryant matched up with Rondo when the Celtics are on offence, allowing the MVP to roam the floor as a free safety and clog up the passing lanes because Rondo hasn’t proven he can knock down his jump shot consistently. Then, when a shot is missed and the Lakers have the ball, Rondo ends up having to guard Kobe – which is the mismatch of all mismatches. I understand it’s hard to switch up on a missed shot and easier to do so after a made basket when there’s more time to adjust as the ball is inbounded but you cannot have Rondo on Kobe at any point in the game by design. It’s just a recipe for disaster. Ray Allen is by no means a lock-down defender but he has fared a lot better against Kobe this season.
3. I could blame this one on Doc Rivers as well or even Kevin Garnett but we don’t know if the orders were given out to create a half court trap on Kobe in the fourth quarter last night. I was screaming at the TV for one player to recover because Sasha Vujacic was just waiting on his own in the corner and he was the second-last player you’d want to have the ball in Tuesday’s game. Of course, he sunk the shot and the lead ballooned from two points to five with the clock ticking down. Three-pointers in the last few minutes of a basketball game can really be demoralizing daggers. I felt like that was one of them and if Doc gave out the orders to trap Kobe, he really isn’t prepared to coach on this stage.
4. Phil Jackson finally figured out how to guard the Celtics’ backcourt. Of course, leave Rajon Rondo alone, like I mentioned earlier. Even then, Sam Cassell and Eddie House are prone to turnovers when they are under a lot of ball pressure, which the Lakers can bring with Vujacic and Jordan Farmar. It took almost two full games for the Zen Master to realize this and utilize it even though the Pistons had Lindsey Hunter playing that role in the Conference Finals. I guess he missed it. Either way, it’s an interesting storyline to watch, especially since Rondo rolled that ankle and didn’t practice on Wednesday, so he won’t be at 100%. I hope we see more of Eddie House in Game 4.
5. This is another positive adjustment made by Phil Jackson: get more shooters on the floor. When the Lakers go small around Kobe Bryant, his penetration is deadly. The whole reason the Celtics were so successful in the first two games was they were able to keep four players around the basket with a foot in the paint. This was a gamble because they wouldn’t be as close to shooters as they would like but they did get to contest every drive made by Kobe. However, with a smaller line-up, the Celtics had to be more cautious about how far away they got from the perimeter because guys like Vujacic could light it up at any time – which he did last night, for 20 points. Obviously, the Celtics still held L.A. to a low scoring output and percentage but that’s something that needs to be monitored as the series continues.
6. Just as Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom were invisible for Game 3, so were Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. I believe KG was something like 1-for-10 in the first half and the two of them combined for 8-for-35 shooting overall in the game. That’s just not going to cut it. The Celtics will not win games when Kobe Bryant plays well if they don’t get production out of at least two of the Big Three. KG got into a bit of a rhythm in the post in the second half but then they stopped going to him and that was around the time they fell apart. His defence and rebounding were there throughout the game but he has got to punish defenders with his mix of size, strength, speed and finesse. No matter who is guarding him – whether it be Gasol, Odom or Ronny Turiaf – he has some kind of advantage on them that needs to be exploited. He has to have 30+ points in Game 4.
7. The referees made it blatantly obvious that not only do ‘make-up calls’ exist, but ‘make-up GAMES’ exist as well. After getting to the line 28 more times in Game 2, the referees paid the Lakers back in Game 3 by calling something almost every time Kobe Bryant went over to cry about it. As Simmons outlined in his article, he even made a point of driving toward the side of the court where Bennett Salvatore was in order to give him the best possible look at any foul manufacturing he could put together. It’s very upsetting that Paul Pierce was getting hit as he battled around screens with the ball and nothing was called but when Kobe was simply contested in the lane, they called minimal contact on the body. It’s frustrating to play that way when it seemed early on like they were going to let a lot go. Hopefully they consider things ‘even’ now and the games will be refereed the correct way for as long as this series goes.
8. Ray Allen was exceptional in Game 3, shooting 5-for-7 from long range and finishing with 25 points. Without him, the Celtics would’ve been blown out by more than ten points like I predicted on Monday. Either way, Boston needs Ray to continue his good shooting in order for them to keep winning games. They also need to try their best to get him matched up with Kobe Bryant again. I hope Doc Rivers spent a lot of time going over their defensive strategy on Wednesday so that in Game 4, there won’t be as many breakdowns and mental lapses as there were on Tuesday. It was hard to watch at times.
9. What was the league thinking when they scheduled the Finals? They deemed it necessary to have two off days between Games 1 and 2 in Boston but one off day between Games 2 and 3 when the teams would be switching coasts and experiencing a three-hour time zone shift? Who the hell made that decision? The game on Sunday night finished around midnight or so and then the teams flew into Los Angeles that morning, had to practice on Monday and then get ready for an earlier start than they’re used to – at least in Boston’s case. It’s already hard on them considering they had to change from 7 PM start times to 9 PM in their own time zone and athletes are creatures of habit. Getting out of those habits does actually have an effect on them, as the free throw shooting proves. Both teams were under 70% in Game 3.
Game 4 Outlook: Another Must-Win for the Lakeshow
This is very simple: Game 3 means nothing if the Lakers don’t manage to win Game 4 on Thursday. If they go down 3-1, it would just be a matter of time before the Celtics close them out. I’m sure the statistics on series’ that end up 3-1 in the Finals don’t bode well for the team that’s down. A Laker win would give them all the momentum and a chance to take the series lead in Game 5 before heading back to Boston but with the way they played Game 3, they still have a lot of work to do in order to get to that point. On Monday, I made several predictions. One of them was that the Lakers would win the game by at least ten points and it turns out I was wrong about that because they won by six. I went on to predict Kobe Bryant would have 35 points and he finished with 36, so I guess I’m not doing too badly. There are several things to watch out for in Game 4, because it is a very important game. It could virtually win the Championship for the Celtics if they manage to get it. From the Celtics’ perspective, they need to find a way to get more offensive efficiency out of their team. Rajon Rondo may not be 100% and if he isn’t, I would not be opposed to seeing more of Eddie House out there because at least he commands a defender with his shooting abilities from outside. If he’s on the floor, you’ll see less of Kobe Bryant or Derek Fisher roaming the floor wreaking havoc on Paul Pierce as he tries to make his slow moves down the lane or in the paint. That would be a big help to Boston but their ball handling would suffer and I’m sure Phil Jackson would bring strong full court pressure up the floor with Vujacic or Farmar to force House into turnovers. Is it worth it? That’s for Doc Rivers to decide but I like the idea. Also, Jeff Van Gundy was brainstorming out loud last night that perhaps it’d be a good idea to have Allen, Pierce AND James Posey on the floor at the same time to have the same effect as House would by stretching the defence and opening up the floor for guys like Pierce and Garnett to work in the paint. Would anyone be willing to leave Allen or Posey to double down in the post, knowing those two guys can knock down threes? I know I’d be wary about it if I was the Lakers’ coaching staff. Again, the ball handling may suffer but it’d help the offence. Finally, it can be as simple as Pierce and Garnett picking their games up. I can’t see another 8-for-35 night but if they can collectively shoot over 50% and average 20-23 points on Thursday night with solid defence, the Celtics will win. As for the Lakers, they need to continue exploiting their advantage with the smaller line-up. It commands straight-up coverage rather than a soft zone defence where Boston can pack it into the lane. Instead, Kobe Bryant has more room to work with and like we saw last night, he got into the paint more often because defenders were worried he’d hit their man with a crisp pass for an open jump shot. I don’t see Sasha Vujacic dropping another 20 points in Game 4 so the Lakers will REALLY need the front court to man up and step forward with a good game. I don’t see Lamar Odom doing anything worthwhile, although he may be due for a good performance with the way he’s played the last eight ball games. However, Pau Gasol showed signs in Game 2 of being very aggressive against KG and he even dunked on him and was 5-for-5 shooting at one point – maybe even 6-for-6. Why the Lakers didn’t keep him involved, I’ll never know. He’s proven he can contribute and they need him to get touches early in games because Kobe will get his no matter what happens. It’s in L.A. and I can’t see him scoring anything less than 28 in the next two games. So now that I’ve laid out the things to look for as far as strategy goes, it’s time for some predictions. The Boston Celtics will win this ball game by about seven points, Kobe Bryant will score 33, Kevin Garnett will have 32 points and 14 rebounds, Paul Pierce will have 21 points and Ray Allen will have 17. Is it a bit of a stretch? Maybe it is. The Lakers really should’ve won by more in Game 3 and it’s not like the margin of victory matters but it gives the Celtics confidence to know that they played one of the worst offensive games they possibly could and were still in a position to win in the dying minutes. Kobe Bryant and Sasha Vujacic will not combine to beat the Celtics again, whereas it’s unreasonable to assume Boston’s Big Three won’t bounce back with better performances. This game means everything to L.A.: if they win, it’s a three-game series and they have the momentum; if they lose, they have one more game at home to close the deficit to one game and they’ll have to hope Kobe goes absolutely nuts in Boston to win the next two games. I just don’t see that happening. Perhaps the law of averages will allow the Lakers’ big men to finally have a good game because it’s impossible to be this bad for this long but maybe it’s the Celtics’ D holding them down. As a Boston fan, I sure hope they can continue the stellar defence because all it would take is one bad game and this thing would be looked at as a huge missed opportunity to finish the Lakers off quickly. We’ll see how it plays out.
Headlines
“Will Grizz Make Run At Ellis?”
Link: http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/52936/20080611/will_griz_make_run_at_ellis/
Monta Ellis would fit what the Memphis Grizzlies are trying to do to a tee. They want to play that fast, up-tempo style that Marc Iavaroni likes so much and he’s a great guard that can fly through the air and is quicker than most players in the league. With Mike Conley Jr. and Kyle Lowry, they’re pretty much set at the point guard spot so adding Ellis would be nice to complement Rudy Gay and Darko Milicic but I still think they need another versatile big in order to be successful and really start growing. Maybe Kevin Love would fit but I don’t know if he’d be the perfect guy for the system.
“Boston Interested In 2010 All-Star Game”
Link: http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/52939/20080611/boston_interested_in_2010_all_star_game/
The Celtics would probably be a good fit to host the All-Star game that year since it’ll be the third full season the Big Three will be together in Boston. It could also be the last if one or more of them don’t sign contract extensions with the team next summer. Anyway, I was hoping the Raptors would have an All-Star game here in the next few seasons once Maple Leaf Square is done. I’m sure that by the time that happens, Toronto will be established as a perennial playoff team – hopefully a winner rather than losing in the first round every year.
“Could Magic Or Lakers Court Arenas?”
Link: http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/52937/20080611/could_magic_or_lakers_court_arenas/
This doesn’t have much validity to it, I’m guessing, but it’s still interesting. The Lakers don’t seem to have too much cap room to offer Arenas a contract unless it’s in some sort of sign-and-trade deal with Washington but even then, I’m sure they’d be trying to get rid of Lamar Odom and the Wizards have no use for him with Antawn Jamison likely to sign a new contract this summer. Arenas is just the type of player the Magic need but again, I don’t see them with a lot of financial flexibility to make a move with Rashard Lewis’ giant contract. They don’t have a guard to offer, which is what I think Washington would be looking for unless they can get a great big.
“Maggette Will Opt Out Soon”
Link: http://realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/52933/20080611/maggette_will_opt_out_soon/
Corey Maggette is expected to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this month when he opts out of the final year of his deal with the Clippers. Raptors fans have been dying to see Maggette in Toronto wearing the red and white but we don’t have much to offer financially. The mid-level exception is available but Maggette would be looking for close to two times that amount as his starting price. I’m not sure the Clippers would swing a sign-and-trade deal but they do need a point guard in case Shaun Livingston doesn’t regain his old form following that disastrous knee injury. T.J. Ford would be a pretty good fit there with Elton Brand, Cuttino Mobley, Chris Kaman, etc.
That’s it for this entry and I may be back on Friday for a review of Game 4 of the Finals as well as a preview of Sunday’s Game 5 in L.A. Hope you all enjoy the analysis and feel free to leave feedback in the comments section of the blog. I’m getting a lot of hits but not as many comments as you would expect so just scroll down to the bottom of the entry and give me your thoughts on what’s been written or even random things. Until next time..
-Mark R.
[The Raptor Core]
Filed under: NBA Finals | Tagged: All-Star Game, Antawn Jamison, Bill Simmons, Boston Celtics, Chris Kaman, Corey Maggette, Cuttino Mobley, Doc Rivers, Eddie House, Elton Brand, ESPN, Gilbert Arenas, James Posey, Jordan Farmar, Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Kyle Lowry, Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Marc Iavaroni, Memphis Grizzlies, Mike Conley Jr., Monta Ellis, NBA Finals, Orlando Magic, P.J. Brown, Pau Gasol, Paul Pierce, Phil Jackson, Rajon Rondo, Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Rudy Gay, Sam Cassell, Sasha Vujacic, Shaun Livingston, T.J. Ford, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards
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