NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Review & NBA Finals Preview

Conference Finals Review

Eastern Conference

VS

1) Boston Celtics vs. 2) Detroit Pistons

I’m happy to say I was totally right when I made my predictions for this series roughly two weeks ago. There was no way the Boston Celtics were going to remain winless on the road and they managed to take two of three at the Palace of Auburn Hills. I figured they would be able to end the series on the road and they did just that. Pretty much all of the individual match-ups played out the way I envisioned as well but there were a few exceptions. Where was the Pistons’ frontcourt for almost the entire series? Antonio McDyess had a good game in Boston when Detroit won and then an outstanding Game 4 with their backs against the wall. Rasheed Wallace pretty much had one good game in the series, which was Game 5 where he dropped 18 points – all on three-point shots. I don’t even consider that a very effective game. Tayshaun Prince was invisible the entire time against Boston, just like he was in the regular season. Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton did all they could to give Detroit a chance with superior backcourt play but there’s not much you can do when your frontcourt counterparts are being outplayed by such a wide margin. Kendrick Perkins absolutely abused the Pistons in Game 5 with just sheer power and aggressiveness, which is unacceptable for a veteran team. I was rooting for the Celtics and at no point was I ever worried they were in danger of losing this series – not when it was 1-1, or even 2-2. Rodney Stuckey was absolutely phenomenal off the bench in the games where Billups was clearly below 100% and this kid is a sparkplug scorer similar to Ben Gordon in Chicago. I think he’s the heir apparent to Mr. Big Shot in the Detroit organization. Jason Maxiell was a beast as well, especially on the defensive end. There was one play in particular in Game 4 when Kevin Garnett had a fast break dunk attempt that was swatted away cleanly from behind by Maxiell. I was out of my chair calling for a foul until I saw the replay and sat back down – it was an amazing play and he’ll be good for the Pistons as well. The key to the Celtics winning was their ability to get the Big Three firing on all cylinders. I still believe Kevin Garnett needs to be a lot more assertive on the offensive end because he passes up way too many shots for a player with his skill level. In the deciding game, he actually passed up a jumper to Rajon Rondo along the right baseline and luckily, the young point guard drove the dagger into the Pistons’ season. If he had missed like everyone expected he would and the Pistons found some way to come back and win Game 6, forcing a Game 7 in Boston, what would the critics have said about Kevin Garnett? Was he merely showing confidence in a young teammate or was he scared of the big moment on a big stage? I guess the answer doesn’t really matter for now. Ray Allen was amazing in Games 5 and 6 when he finally snapped out of this prolonged shooting slump that’s lasted almost an entire two rounds of the playoffs. Once he got stroking those three-pointers in transition and was 5-for-6 in Game 5, I knew the Pistons were in trouble. The way he was moving without the ball and showing confidence in the shots, unlike games past, you could just tell he was going to break out. Earlier in the series, he seemed very tense and cautious on every move he made, passing up shots he would normally take. What can be said about ‘The Truth’, Paul Pierce? He is that reliable anchor that keeps the Celtics nailed down to where they need to be. Sometimes he moves so slowly, you don’t think he’ll be able to get to the basket or get his shot off without being blocked but he manages to do it and make the shot. He was nothing short of amazing in Game 6 when a crucial call went against him and he still willed his team back from down ten points in the fourth quarter. That is a sign of a true leader and a big-time performer, as if Game 7 of the Cleveland series wasn’t enough to convince people. Again, Kendrick Perkins has elevated his game throughout the playoffs. We can’t expect 18 points and 16 rebounds every night like we got in Game 5 but he’s been such a force down low on the glass and defending people. A blueprint was mapped out for how to guard the Celtics when Rajon Rondo is on the floor and that doesn’t bode well for future rounds so the young guy will have to step up his game at one of the hardest positions to do so. It was announced on June 3 that Flip Saunders would not be returning as the Pistons coach next year. Joe Dumars decided to let him go before the final year of his contract and who can blame him? Either way, I don’t think the Pistons are good enough to make it back to this stage next season. The six-year run could very well be over in Motown. What did we learn from this series? Even when they’re not performing to the best of their abilities, the Celtics can win ball games.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

Outcome: Celtics in 6

VS

1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 3) San Antonio Spurs

So in my preview of this series, I wondered out loud how the San Antonio Spurs always seemed to be in the thick of things at the end of the season. It’s a tribute to the greatness of Tim Duncan, as well as the complementary pieces like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. However, this year, their bench and age were the reasons they lost in five games. If someone told me the Los Angeles Lakers would dispatch them this easily, I would’ve called them crazy but sometimes fact is stranger than fiction. Kobe Bryant was absolutely phenomenal in this series on a game-to-game basis. Bruce Bowen did manage to hold him down a little in the game San Antonio won at home and he did an overall admirable job on the MVP but that’s not exactly where the series was won – or was it? The Spurs should’ve started this thing up 1-0 but that monumental 20-point collapse in the second half of Game 1 is probably what cost them all the momentum in the series. I don’t even know if I believe that considering the Spurs are a veteran team that was down to the New Orleans Hornets as well and still found a way to win. There are several theories on why the Spurs lost. First, I liken their Game 1 loss at the hands of Kobe Bryant to the loss the Phoenix Suns suffered in the first game of their series with San Antonio. That went to double overtime and the Suns lost a game they should have won. They ended up losing in five games. The Spurs outplayed the Lakers for about 28-30 minutes in Game 1 and then it was the Kobe show as he single-handedly brought the hammer down. He then rinsed and repeated the feat in Game 5 to close San Antonio out in a game where they came out poised and looked prepared. Now, the second theory is similar to the one where Tayshaun Prince didn’t play well against the Celtics all year. By the numbers, Manu Ginobili was not his usual self against the Lakers this season and while he was injured throughout the Conference Finals, he only had one exceptional game – not coincidentally, it was the game they won. When Manu isn’t playing well, the Spurs don’t have that same energy and presence on the court, regardless of Tim Duncan putting up the ridiculous numbers he did. Third, the Spurs just looked very old in this postseason. It could be because they were taken to the brink by New Orleans in that seven-game series, but I think it goes much deeper than that. Kurt Thomas is a serviceable big man but their frontcourt is VERY old off the bench. No one is scared of Thomas or Robert Horry. The latter had a terrible postseason and his legacy as Big Shot Bob is definitely behind him. Brent Barry had a couple good games and while everyone knows a foul should’ve been called at the end of Game 4 that might’ve helped even up the series, the way the Spurs played to that point showed they didn’t deserve to win. They played old, slow and generally lackadaisical. Michael Finley didn’t step up in a crucial Game 4 and neither did Fabricio Oberto (comparatively speaking), combining for a whopping zero points in that contest. What did Ginobili have that night? Seven points. That’s unheard of and it’s no surprise the Lakers won this thing. So while there are plenty of reasons to say the Spurs had a lot on their plate to deal with this postseason, they just weren’t good enough to beat the Lakers. Tim Duncan embarrassed Pau Gasol as I predicted, Lamar Odom didn’t even have that great of a series when compared to what he did against Utah, Derek Fisher almost shot them out of a few games, and yet here they stand in the NBA Finals. What did we learn? The Spurs need to make some moves in the offseason to bring youth and talent to their bench.

Prediction: Lakers in 7

Outcome: Lakers in 5

NBA Finals Preview

VS

1) Boston Celtics vs. 1) Los Angeles Lakers

This is the BIG one. Since I’ve been watching the NBA, I don’t remember a more exciting Final than we are about to see starting on June 5^th. You have the two top seeds in both Conferences, the two most storied franchises in the history of the league, the MVP, a three-headed colossus looking for its first ring and what could be the capper of what has been arguably the greatest overall season the NBA has ever had. I can’t confirm or deny that since I’m only 19 years old but there are whispers coming from the media about the very same thing so maybe it’s right. Anyway, I’m going to be a bit more cerebral with my preview of the Final by looking at things from some specific angles rather than as a whole.

Coaching:

I find it funny how people in Toronto condemn Sam Mitchell and talk about how horrible he is but when you look at Doc Rivers, how much better is he? His assistant, Tom Thibodeau, is the one who implemented the defensive system that has made the Celtics so good and Rivers makes blunders that even Mitchell doesn’t. One similarity between the two is their odd substitution patterns. It’s the playoffs and for some reason, the Big Three aren’t getting some minutes that they should be. Doc ends up ‘resting’ them for use later in the game when he could squeeze some additional time out of them. He doesn’t seem to adjust to what’s going on in games right away, which is another fault Mitchell has. Phil Jackson, on the other hand, is one of the greatest coaches the NBA has ever seen. While a lot of that has to do with the fact he’s coached the likes of Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant, his triangle offence has been proven effective and I think the Lakers have the advantage here.

Advantage: Lakers

Point Guards:

Derek Fisher against Rajon Rondo will be a key match-up. Rondo has lived up to what he needed to be this season but in the Conference Final against Detroit, they chose not to guard him off the ball. This pretty much leaves one defender to roam the floor like a free safety in football, which cuts off a lot of passing lanes for the offence. Now, this may not affect the Celtics as much as it would for other teams because they run a lot of pick-and-rolls on the floor but at the same time, whenever they try to isolate Paul Pierce to make a move with his back to the basket, that second defender comes from the weak side and throws off the entire play. Rondo is going to have to sink jumpers early in the series and probably often in order to keep defences honest. The Celtics don’t have the luxury of employing the same strategy due to the fact Fisher is known for being a sharpshooter from outside and while he hasn’t been particularly sharp with his shooting this postseason, he’s still too good to leave open. Rondo has to penetrate, continue to make good decisions with his passing and take care of the ball because Fisher isn’t that great of a defender anyway.

Advantage: TIE

Shooting Guards:

Come on, now. Kobe Bryant is the best basketball player on the planet so no one would have an advantage over him here. I think the whole Tony Allen injury thing is overblown. So he held the MVP to 22 points in a game earlier this season but that was the regular season and it was before Andrew Bynum had really exploded, not to mention the fact Pau Gasol was still a Memphis Grizzly. That Lakers team was a lot different so now that they have Gasol inside, more attention has to be paid to him and help may have to come, which could leave Kobe with better looks than he would normally have if Bynum was there and Gasol wasn’t. Ray Allen can still have an impact on this series, even if Kobe Bryant is guarding him. He can get those shots in transition and seems to have his flow back, while making Kobe tired in the process. That could help when the Lakers are on offence and Bryant has a little less left in the tank than he normally would. Rip Hamilton is a very capable defender at that spot and Ray Allen held his own so I’m hoping the gap between Kobe and Ray won’t be as wide as it could be. Allen HAS to sink shots, plain and simple.

Advantage: Lakers

Small Forwards:

I’m not 100% sure of whether Vladimir Radmonovic will continue to start or if it’ll be Luke Walton. Either way, none of them can hold The Truth, Paul Pierce. He is a monster when he decides he wants to do something and I think he’ll have to be the best player on the team for the Celtics to have a chance in this series – second best at the absolute worst. Radmanovic has had an up and down postseason for the most part. He didn’t play all that well early on but had a good Game 1 in the San Antonio series and didn’t embarrass himself like at other times. Walton hasn’t done anything for me to be scared of and I don’t think either of the two can guard Pierce anywhere on the floor. Maybe the Lakers will choose to substitute early and have Kobe guard Pierce with a guy like Vujacic or Farmar on Ray Allen? We’ll have to wait and see how Phil Jackson plays it but the advantage here is extremely clear.

Advantage: Celtics

Power Forwards:

Again, a question mark presents itself for the Lakers. Lamar Odom is one of the most versatile players in the NBA; he can shoot, he can pass, he can defend pretty well from the weak side, he can slash, he can rebound – the traditional five-tool player, as they say in baseball. However, while he had a monstrous series against the Utah Jazz, he didn’t stand out much against the Spurs. He blamed himself for the Game 3 loss in San Antonio and didn’t exactly vindicate himself in the following two games. Kevin Garnett has been the Celtics’ anchor this postseason with his scoring, rebounding and defence. To reiterate on my point from earlier, he HAS to start taking more shots when they’re open and I think Doc Rivers needs to find a way to post him up on the block more as well. The Pistons couldn’t stop it and I don’t think Odom is strong enough to stop it either. If they make KG just a jump-shooter, he can make half of his shots but that’s not what will be in the best interests of the team. The Big Three needs him to be the post presence while Pierce and Allen take care of the outside and intermediate games. I’m confident Garnett will have a series worthy of Finals MVP if the Celtics manage to win.

Advantage: Celtics

Centers:

This is another clear victory for the Lakers. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Celtics fan but I’m not sipping the Kool-Aid enough to think Kendrick Perkins will outplay Pau Gasol over a seven-game series. He has definitely been good for the C’s this year and I think his defence has been underrated because so many people are busy talking about Garnett. Perkins is strong and surprisingly quick for a guy his size – when he chooses it’s necessary. At other times, he can be slow and sluggish. Depending on the foul situations, Kevin Garnett may end up playing Gasol at times but I doubt we’ll see it very often. Gasol is faster than Perkins, more versatile, and just more talented overall. It’ll be like a warm summer day for Pau compared to the tsunami that Tim Duncan had him in for five games over the last couple weeks. If Perkins can have one repeat performance of what he did in Game 5 against the Pistons, that’ll be an automatic win for the Celtics. I just don’t see it happening, though. Gasol will re-join the Lakers for the Finals after missing the last series.

Advantage: Lakers

Bench:

This is where things get even more interesting. The Lakers’ bench – on paper – is one of the best in the NBA. You have guys like Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Ronny Turiaf and Trevor Ariza while the Celtics counter with Sam Cassell, Eddie House, James Posey, P.J. Brown and Leon Powe. Cassell’s offence has been non-existent in the playoffs so far so if he can’t hit shots, what will he be out there for? He also didn’t react well to Lindsey Hunter’s ball pressure against the Pistons. Eddie House is a good shooter from outside but he can’t exactly back up Rondo when his ball handling abilities are just average. Farmar and Vujacic can straight up shoot the rock and the latter can shoot you out of games as well. James Posey will draw the assignment of guarding Kobe Bryant at times and I think he’ll do a good job. Again, he’s no Bruce Bowen and no one will consistently hold the MVP below 30 points every night but Posey is a good defender, quick, long, versatile, athletic and experienced. Tony Allen may be missed for his defence on Kobe but it’s not like he was going to totally lock him down. I think that whole thing is overrated and the media is just looking for something to talk about. Turiaf is a beast on the boards so they have to contain his energy when he gets into the game. He’ll be a handful for guys like Perkins, Powe and Glen Davis – whoever ends up having to guard him. I don’t expect to really see Ariza out there much but you never know if he’s shown strong signs of improvement in practice or something along those lines.

Advantage: Lakers

Defence:

There’s no comparison here. One team allows almost 100 points per game – if not more – while the other was hands-down the best defensive team in the NBA this season. This will be the first team the Lakers will play that can boast a supreme defence AND offence. The Nuggets were only gifted offensively, the Jazz had a couple good individual defenders but the team overall was atrocious and the San Antonio Spurs lacked energy on both sides of the floor, especially offence, so they had no shot in that series with Manu Ginobili hurt. The Celtics? They have the Big Three who can score and a defence that held teams to a ghastly total throughout the regular season.

Advantage: Celtics

Conclusion:

Doc Rivers needs to shorten up his bench. His veterans are now playing for the NBA Championship so the only thing he should be doing is saving a little for the next game – there’s no next week anymore. You know Kobe Bryant could be on the floor for 44 minutes or more every single night so Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have to be ready to do the same if they have to. You have to try and get 65 points per game out of them if at all possible, even though they didn’t average that during the regular season. Kobe Bryant has got to stop himself from being a volume shooter because statistics show that the Lakers are much more successful when he shoots less and facilitates more for his teammates. On paper, most of these match-ups and analyses end up in the Los Angeles Lakers’ favour so I can see why the Celtics are considered to be the underdogs. The first two games will really set the tone and I think Boston needs to win both of them in order to put the pressure on L.A. because Games 3, 4 and 5 are all at Staples Center. If the Lakers take one in Boston, who’s to say they don’t find a way to take the next three in their own building? We’ll find out. I think it’s pretty stupid that the league uses a 2-2-1-1-1 format for the first three rounds and then switches it up to 2-3-2 for the Finals. I understand it’s because of the two coasts and time zones, as well as traveling arrangements and TV schedules but that top seed is at a bit of a disadvantage, in my opinion. Since the Lakers are favoured, I’ll change things up and rather than tell you what I think will happen, I’ll tell you what I WANT to happen.

Prediction: Celtics in 6

There you have it, the 2008 Conference Finals Review and NBA Finals Preview. Hope you enjoyed it after the lay-off I’ve had for the last few days. Also, June 16^th will mark the return of the live blog co-hosted by myself and James Borbath from the Dino Nation Blog. Stay tuned for more updates on that because it’ll involve a lot of Raptor-related discussion so you’ll want to be involved – it’s fully interactive! Until next time..

-Mark R.

[The Raptor Core]